"Writing is a Magic Trick" by Adam Buckley
A magic trick has three parts—the pledge, the turn, and the prestige—and so does a story. The pledge shows the audience something ordinary, the turn proves that the extraordinary is possible, and the prestige sees the performer topping themself with a final flourish. Writing is much the same. The pledge is the audience’s base understanding, the information you’re willing to concede to them, or at least let them think they know. The turn is foreshadowing, or perhaps your character undergoing their intended arc, but undeniably, it's the force of change in the narrative. The prestige is the big payoff, the punchline to all your setup.
Magicians and storytellers are armed with the same weapons, those being misdirection and information control. Stories with a glut of ongoing characters and plots allow the author to selectively dole out information to the audience, all the while directly manipulating their attention. There’s power in unrelated plots suddenly crossing over, for decisions made on one side of the world affecting those on the other. In a post-Game of Thrones world, however, it might not be the most surprising to an intelligent audience. In that case, you have to control the information available to them.

Have you ever been watching a movie and known exactly where it was going? Gotten distracted during a scene because its foreshadowing was so clearly telegraphed? A magic trick, no matter how impressive, doesn’t leave its mark if its results are predictable. Why care about the “how” when the “what” is disinteresting? Foreshadowing is a tool best used subtly. Too much is a greater sin than too little, in my opinion, as it robs the audience of having authentic interactions with the text. It also robs the story of authentic surprises. Remedying this can be as easy as cutting down on obvious portents, but you have multiple options available.
One is misdirection. Like I said before, having a lot of characters at your disposable helps here, but in the case that you have a single narrative, simply focussing on a different issue than the main plot, like a robust sub-plot or emotional concern, controls audience attention. The trick here is that this can’t be random or flimsy. Without a strong compulsion from the audience, this is nothing more than a meaningless aside. Your job is to convince them otherwise.
The second tool you have is speed. When your audience assumes change happens slowly over time, ramping things up hijacks their expectations. Putting your readers in the headspace of “Anything could happen!” is the goal, and placing a payoff early on in the story is an easy way to do so. This also limits the audience’s time to figure you out. If you’ve rubber-banded past their realm of expectation, then you’ve got them hooked.
Of course, I’m just a guy. These are just my own observations, but they’ve helped me when constructing my own stories. I couldn’t pull a rabbit from a hat or a quarter from behind your ear, but I’ve employed some sleight of hand on the page many times, and so have you.
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